State run PSU, BSNL which is lagging private operators for the last few years may witness a further erosion of market share even as private operators improve respective performance in terms of adding subscriber base.

A study by Research and Markets estimates that BSNL may end up with market share of 7.3 % & by 2013 as compared to market share of 13.3 % in 2008.

Bharti Airtel is predicted to continue leading the pack with its subscriber base increasing from 85.7 million in 2008 to 239.9 million by 2013. Following Airtel will be RCom with subscriber base of 158.8 million while Vodafone Essar will have 151.6 million subscribers. The subscriber base for wireless services in the country may scale past 876.6 million by 2013.

In terms of market share, Airtel will see increase from 24.7% to 27.4 % by 2013 while for RCom and Idea Cellular, the market shares will increase to reach 18.1 % and 13.2 % respectively.

Sadly the ARPU will continue declining at a rate of 19.7%. ARPU may decline from Rs 302 in 2008 to Rs 240 by 2013. RCom in particular will have the lowest ARPU of Rs 201 from 277 in 2008. Minutes of usage per subscriber will also decline at the rate of 8.6%.

The research predicts the EBITDA of Bharti Airtel to improve over the five year period from 2008-2013 from 31.9% to 34.2 %. RCom will have the best EBITDA says the research at 38.2% by 2013.

The main drawback about this research finding is that it took into consideration trends till Q1 2009. Indian industry has witnessed dynamic change in market environment since then with all operators offering one paise per second billing and new entrants notching record subscriber additions. Hence there is a very high likelihood that in reality the findings may vary significantly by the end of 2013.