Mobile Virtual Network Operator growth is set to gain momentum across the world in the next five years, with the global MVNO subscriber base primed to increase two-fold in the coming four years, revealed a latest research from TeleGeography.

However, at present MVNO is a characteristic typical to only well-developed and mature telecom markets, particularly Western Europe, North America and a small number of other countries.

In addition, the growth reported in terms of MVNO subscribers has not kept pace with the overall growth in wireless subscribers.

But this trend can be explained by the fact that growth in wireless subscribers across the world has been driven predominantly by explosive growth in a small number of developing countries, such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam and Pakistan, where all MVNOs are either prohibited or at a emerging stage of development.

While MVNOs have succeeded in growing their share of these mature markets, the growth trend is obscured when looking at the global picture.

In 2003, MVNOs accounted for 7 percent of subscribers in Western Europe and North America, while wireless subscribers by June end 2009 had grown by almost 60 percent in these two regions to reach 800 million, and MVNOs’ share had increased to over 9 percent.

In contrast, from 2003 to mid-2009 the number of wireless subscribers in regions other than Western Europe and North America more than quadrupled to reach some 3.5 billion.

However, MVNOs have yet to make much impact in these higher growth markets: outside of Western Europe and North America, where their share of the market remains less than 0.5 percent.

While, MVNOs have been growing strongly in Western Europe and North America, the two regions account for an ever-smaller portion of the world’s wireless subscriber base, which has dropped from almost 40 percent to less than 20 percent.

Summing up, the statistics reveal that globally MVNOs’ share of wireless subscribers has dropped from almost 3 percent in 2003 to its current level of just over 2 percent.

But MVNOs have at the same time managed to gradually increase their market share in well-developed mature markets, while gaining some important footholds in other markets around the world.

With the time to come, the maturing market and regulatory bodies impinging on increasing competition, MVNOs is set to make entry in more countries, promising a strong growth in the years ahead.

“As markets approach maturity and as regulatory regimes look to increase competition and to better serve diverse populations, MVNOs will be allowed to launch services in many new countries,” said TeleGeography senior research analyst David Leach.